Tangible Management

OK…sticking my neck out a little, but there’s a lot going on. And there are one or two stand-out items for 2024 on our forecast bingo card: AI and HR. We certainly have a few wildcards in play in the Middle East and Ukraine, plus a plethora of ‘democratic’ (some more than others) elections across the world. Wildcards (and potential black swans) notwithstanding, and steering clear of politics, wars and religion, here’s my clutch of 24 predictions, mini-rants, speculations and contemplations for 2024. 1. HR: Insofar as Agile and Digital Transformation programs didn’t kill hierarchies and silos in organizations, AI (AGI, ML) will. HR teams will face unprecedented pressure as the labour market remains tight and AI adoption forces the pace. 2. HR (again): will adapt by (an even greater) focus on internal marketplaces, AI usage and more ‘make’ not ‘buy’ through internal skills development. 3. HR (again): Will move out of their comfort zones in re-imagining support for IT and other communities who are going 'radical' on Agile and upending traditional management structures. 4. Artificial Intelligence will accelerate towards full human-level AGI by 2028. Regulators will not be able to keep up. 5. Apple will release AI (ML) integrated across all its ecosystem but centered on the iPhone. 6. AI will impact the Legal profession in ways that we’re only just starting to comprehend. There will be some casualties amongst the laggards. 7. Despite the darker sides of homo sapiens on our planet, people will remain broadly optimistic that 2024 will be better than 2023. (Source: Ipsos https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-global-predictions-2024 ). 8. NASA will land multiple vehicles on the moon. 9. India’s space industry is on a roll. Its agile space industry will flourish with dozens of new space start-ups added to the 54 created in 2023. 10. Spending on Cloud will increase by 20% to $670 billion (Gartner). 11. The Chinese population will continue its inevitable decline towards halving its current number by 2099. 12. The New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft will drag on. But the first fines will land on the doormats of LLM owners for privacy violations. 13. >90% of software engineers will use AI to generate code thereby increasing productivity. 14. 98% of creative workers will use Generative AI to create reports, emails, slides, images and ideas. 15. GenAI will prove a headache for cybersecurity staff trying to keep corporate data safe, while unemployment in cybersecurity remains zero. 16. AI will increasingly be used to generate legal contracts – and even negotiate them. 17. Machines will order from machines, or at least influence human buying decisions. Potentially impacting trillions of dollars of trade by 2030 and making 20% of human-readable websites obsolete. (Source: Gartner https://www.gartner.com/en/information-technology/insights/top-technology-trends .) 18. The engines of the global economy will include Foshan (China), Surat (India) and Kumasi (China). Most in the West have never heard of these places. (Source: McKinsey at https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/no-ordinary-disruption .) 19. Elon Musk will hang on to X but raise additional capital as he takes it in the direction of WeChat. 20. The world’s largest producer of oil will be…the US. 21. 90% of all mobile phones and the majority of IoT devices will be powered by architectures developed by UK-based firm ARM. 22. 100% of all high-end chips will be forged on machines built by ASML of The Netherlands. ASML will roll out more of its ‘High NA’ machines – each one larger than a truck and costing $300M a pop. But will ship less machines overall than in 2023 and none of the High NA will go to China. 23. Economic acceleration will be 10X faster than the Industrial Revolution and 300X the scale. (source: McKinsey https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/no-ordinary-disruption .) 24. The top 10 advertising agencies will spend a combined $50 million to build custom AI solutions that enable their clients to scale personalized marketing campaigns and brand experiences. (Source: Forrester https://www.forrester.com/press-newsroom/forrester-predictions-2024/ .) Stay safe. Have a great 2024! “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards” – Steve Jobs. Image (c) Shutterstock. Forecasts or expectations expressed in this piece may contain inaccurate forward-looking statements and are not intended as investment advice. Also at: amazon.com | amazon.co.uk | bol.com | blog #OnBeingAgile wn from a different source.

On Strategy, Mission and Purpose (Ithaca — in Greek Mythology the island home of Odysseus).As you set out for IthacaHope your road is a long oneFull of adventure, full of discovery.Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt —Don’t be afraid of themYou’ll not find those on your wayAs long as you keep your thoughts raised highAs long as a rare excitementStirs your spirit and your bodyFear, Uncertainty and Doubt — you’ll not encounter themUnless you bring them along inside your soulUnless your soul puts them in front of youHope your road is a long oneMay there be many summer mornings when,with what pleasure, what joy,you enter harbours you’re seeing for the first time;may you stop at many trading stationsto buy fine things,and may you visit many citiesto learn and go on learning from their scholars.Keep Ithaca always in your mind.Arriving there is not the goalSo don’t hurry the journey at all.Better if it lasts for years,so you’re wealthy with all you’ve gained on the way,not expecting Ithaca to make you rich.Ithaca gave you the marvellous journey.Without her you wouldn’t have set out.Source: Excerpted and (shamelessly) adapted from: C. P. Cavafy, “The City” from C.P. Cavafy: Collected Poems. Translated by Edmund Keeley and Philip Sherrard. Translation Copyright © 1975, 1992 by Edmund Keeley and Philip Sherrard.On Strategy, Mission and Purpose (Ithaca — in Greek Mythology the island home of Odysseus). was originally published in On Being Agile on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.